Up until a few weeks ago, vice presidential candidate Congresswoman Maria Leonor \u201cLeni\u201d Robredo was behind in the polls. Way ahead of her then were Senators Francis \u201cChiz\u201d Escudero and Ferdinand \u201cBongbong\u201d Marcos Jr. who were at a statistical dead heat.\u00a0 But the latest polls surprised a lot of the power brokers who have shrugged her off as a \u201cspoiler.\u201d\u00a0 Not anymore.\u00a0 Indeed, if the elections were held today, she\u2019d win over Bongbong and Chiz, which makes one wonder: Why the sudden voters\u2019 interest in Leni?<\/p>\n
This is a complicated situation because first of all, Leni is paired with Liberal Party (LP) standard bearer Manuel \u201cMar\u201d Roxas II who is perceived as a weak leader.\u00a0 And secondly, she\u2019s up against two formidable vice presidential candidates, Marcos and Escudero, whose campaigns are being bankrolled by some of the wealthiest families and oligarchs.\u00a0 While Bongbong is presumed to have unrestricted access to the Marcos family wealth, Chiz is supported by a group of mega-billionaires led by Eduardo \u201cDanding\u201d Cojuangco Jr. and Ramon Ang.\u00a0 Cojuangco is the Chairman of San Miguel Corporation (SMC), the largest food and beverage corporation in the Philippines and Southeast Asia; and Ang is SMC Vice-Chairman and Chief Operating Officer.\u00a0 By comparison, Leni doesn\u2019t have rich and powerful groups that can match her rivals\u2019 financiers.\u00a0 That\u2019s a double whammy \u2013 nay, triple whammy! — that she had to overcome to win the vice presidency.\u00a0 As it stood then, Leni couldn\u2019t win, not even in her dreams.\u00a0\u00a0 Yes, it was that bad.<\/p>\n
Leni\u2019s rise<\/strong><\/p>\n But she proved the pundits wrong.\u00a0 In September 2015, Leni\u2019s rating was 5%. Today, it\u2019s 26% with just three weeks to Election Day.\u00a0 By comparison, Bongbong\u2019s ratings — after shooting up to the 25% range last January — have stagnated, which seems to suggest that he may have reached his highest rating.\u00a0 On the other hand, Chiz\u2019s ratings were like shooting stars.\u00a0 He started with 20% in September 2015 and had gone up as high as 30% by November.\u00a0 But evidently, he had reached the apex of his campaign; it has been downhill since then.\u00a0 Today, Leni and Bongbong are at a statistical dead heat, with Chiz running behind Bongbong at 18%.\u00a0 [Note: these numbers may vary a little in other surveys but their rankings are pretty much in line with the numbers reflected here.]<\/em><\/p>\n Leni\u2019s phenomenal rise brings to the forefront of debate the question: What are the factors that contributed to her success in beating the odds?\u00a0 In my opinion, Leni\u2019s rise happened when presidential candidate Sen. Grace Poe-Llamanzares\u2019 ratings plummeted.\u00a0 That happened last March when Grace\u2019s ratings reached the highest at around 30%.\u00a0 Then her numbers started going down while Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte\u2019s ratings started to go up.\u00a0 By the end of March, Duterte became the frontrunner as Grace\u2019s ratings began to fall.<\/p>\n By the looks of it, the presidential race will be won by either Duterte or Llamanzares.\u00a0 However, Duterte\u2019s campaign is winning a lot of the supporters of Vice President Jejomar Binay whose ratings have slid down to 14% today from 30% last January.\u00a0 And with the upward trend of Duterte\u2019s ratings, a \u201cbandwagon effect\u201d takes hold attracting those who abandoned Binay\u2019s sinking ship and jumping into Duterte\u2019s bandwagon.<\/p>\n Leni vs. Bongbong<\/strong><\/p>\n In the case of the vice presidential contest, it appears that it is going to be a tight race between Leni and Bongbong.\u00a0 But like a horse race, whoever takes the inner position in the final lap would have the advantage of beating the other in a photo finish, with the victor winning by a nose.<\/p>\n And this is where organization and money matter.\u00a0 Organizationally, Leni has an advantage because of the Liberal Party\u2019s top-to-bottom infrastructure, from the President down to the more than 40,000 village councils \u2013 barangays<\/em> \u2013 that the LP administration controls.\u00a0 Bongbong, although a member of the Nacionalista Party (NP), is running as an independent.\u00a0 Two other NP members, Senators Alan Peter Cayetano and Antonio Trillanes IV, are also running for vice president.\u00a0 Bongbong has to rely on his own political network that includes the Kilusang Bagong Lipunan<\/em> (KBL), or New Society Movement, which was founded by his father and namesake, the late President Ferdinand E. Marcos. However, since the ouster of Marcos and dismantling of his authoritarian regime, the KBL became politically insignificant, a relic of the dark days of a bygone era.<\/p>\n But Bongbong\u2019s main strength is his family\u2019s financial empire.\u00a0 Although, the public and the government know not much about the alleged Marcos wealth, it is presumed to have been the source of his campaign funds.\u00a0 And this is where he has an overwhelming advantage over Leni.\u00a0 Like any campaign for political office, money talks.\u00a0 The more money he funnels into his campaign, the louder his message is heard.<\/p>\n However, Leni seems to be unperturbed by Bongbong\u2019s financial advantage.\u00a0 She is a lawyer, holds an Economics degree from the University of the Philippines, a social activist, and currently serving her first term as the representative of the Third District of Camarines Sur to the Philippine House of Representatives, which she reluctantly ran for — and won — in the 2013 elections beating Nelly Favis-Villafuerte, who belongs to the politically powerful Villafuerte family dynasty.<\/p>\n Jesse\u2019s legacy<\/strong><\/p>\n While Leni is politically savvy, her election victory would be a testament to the legacy of her popular husband, the late Secretary of the Interior and Local Government Jesse Robredo who served under the Aquino administration from 2010 until his death in 2012.\u00a0 Prior to his national prominence, Jesse Robredo served six terms as Mayor of Naga City.\u00a0 He was also elected President of the League of Cities of the Philippines, the influential national association of city mayors.\u00a0 In 2000, he was recognized and awarded the Ramon Magsaysay Award for Government Service.<\/p>\n After the death of her husband, Leni kept a low profile.\u00a0 But Fate pushed her to the limelight when she reluctantly accepted a draft to be the LP\u2019s vice presidential nominee after President Aquino failed to convince Grace Poe-Llamanzares to fill the spot.\u00a0\u00a0 As the Aquino\u2019s second choice, it didn\u2019t take long for Leni to learn the ropes of running for national office.\u00a0 Leni\u2019s performance at the two vice presidential debates last April 10 and April 17 proved her mettle as a candidate to be reckoned with.\u00a0 Her ratings improved considerably putting her ahead in the race.\u00a0 After the second debate, 33% of the 1,200 viewers polled voted Leni as the \u201cbest performer\u201d of the debate.\u00a0 Chiz garnered 28%.\u00a0 But Bongbong was a no-show, which proved to be a bad thing for him. Truth be told, his ratings went down by several percentage points.\u00a0 As they say in politics, \u201cOut of sight, out of mind.\u201d<\/p>\n Women\u2019s vote<\/strong><\/p>\n It\u2019s quite interesting to note that during the first debate, Leni was voted the best among women respondents with 35%, which begs the question:\u00a0 Is women\u2019s vote a factor in winning the election?\u00a0 I am inclined to say, \u201cYes, with qualification.\u201d\u00a0 I believe it is how women voters perceive the candidates.\u00a0\u00a0 In the case of Grace Poe-Llamanzares, there seems to be a disconnect with the women voters because of the way she handled the citizenship and residency issues against her.\u00a0 Although the Supreme Court ruled in her favor on the disqualification petitions filed against her, a lot of voters were convinced that she lied.\u00a0 And then there is the case of her having two social security numbers in the U.S.\u00a0 Her denial didn\u2019t seem believable.\u00a0 And then, there is the secrecy about her husband Neil Llamanzares\u2019 employment with an outfit that does espionage work for the CIA and other U.S. intelligence agencies.<\/p>\n But it\u2019s her sense of humor that endears her to voters.\u00a0 During the first debate, Leni teased her five rivals for the vice presidency, saying: “May the best woman win.”\u00a0 She was the only woman among the six candidates.\u00a0 Touch\u00e9!<\/p>\n