The biggest and hottest topic in geopolitical circles today is World War III, or to be more precise\u2026 where will World War III start?\u00a0But if you ask Pope Francis, he\u2019d probably say what he said several months ago: World War III has already begun, at least in a \u201cpiecemeal fashion.\u201d <\/p>\n
\u201cPiecemeal fashion\u201d is a reference to several crises \u2014or regional wars \u2014 in various parts of the world, which could spark a nuclear war that would wipe out mankind.\u00a0The question is: Where will World War III start?\u00a0Take your pick:\u00a0Middle East, Eastern Europe, Baltic Sea, Black Sea, West Africa, East Africa, Central Asia, South Asia, Korean Peninsula, East Asia or South East Asia?\u00a0It\u2019s anybody\u2019s guess.\u00a0But for sure, a crisis or war is going on in all these places. Yes, Pope Francis was right: World War III is here.\u00a0\u00a0 <\/em> <\/em><\/p>\n Consider the following: The Middle East has several wars going on.\u00a0 Eastern Europe is about to explode if the civil war in Ukraine is not contained.\u00a0The Baltic Sea is teeming with Russian and NATO warships loaded with ballistic missiles.\u00a0And so is the Black Sea.\u00a0In East Africa, Saudi Arabia is fighting the Houthi rebels in Yemen. In Central Asia, Azerbaijan and Armenia are locked in a deadly stalemate over Nagorno-Karabakh.\u00a0In South Asia, India and Pakistan are prepared to go to war at the drop of a hat.\u00a0In the Korean Peninsula, North and South Korea are poised to attack each other for without reason. In West Africa, threats from militant groups such as al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), Boko Haram, and ISIS are increasing.\u00a0In East Asia, Japan and China are in a standoff over a few uninhabited islands called Senkaku (Diaoyu to the Chinese).\u00a0And in the South China Sea (SCS), Vietnam and the Philippines are locked in territorial disputes with China over the Spratly Islands; Vietnam and China over the Paracel Islands; and the Philippines and China over the Scarborough Shoal.<\/p>\n Territorial disputes <\/strong><\/p>\n All things considered, the most likely place where war could erupt is the Scarborough Shoal, an uninhabited shoal with a lagoon rich in fish resources.\u00a0It\u2019s within the Philippines\u2019 200-mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ), which she claims as her territory since the Spanish colonial period.<\/p>\n But to the Chinese, Scarborough Shoal\u2019s value is its geostrategic location.\u00a0It did not then come as a surprise when the South China Morning Post<\/em> reported that China would start reclamation later this year.\u00a0China did not deny or confirm the report.\u00a0This alerted U.S. Senator Dan Sullivan to react.\u00a0He surmised that if China were indeed building an artificial island on Scarborough Shoal, it would complete a \u201cstrategic triangle\u201d of bases.<\/p>\n These bases are located in Woody Island in the Paracel archipelago, Spratly Islands, and Scarborough Shoal; thus, giving China control over most of the SCS and the island of Luzon in the Philippines, and Vietnam.<\/p>\n It is interesting to note that the Philippines had signed the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), which allowed the U.S. to rotate military equipment and personnel in existing Philippine bases.\u00a0To date, five military bases have been identified.\u00a0Vietnam also signed an agreement allowing the U.S. to preposition equipment for humanitarian responses.<\/p>\n With China\u2019s Anti-Access\/Area Denial (A2\/AD) strategy already in place, China\u2019s \u201cstrategic triangle\u201d would force the U.S. military to operate farther from the SCS.\u00a0She could then declare an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over the area.<\/p>\n \u201cStrategic Strait\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/strong><\/p>\n Peter Dutton, professor and director of the China Maritime Studies Institute at the U.S. Naval War College, said in a recent speech in London: \u201cThe logical conclusion drawn from China’s adding islands in the southern part of the South China Sea with military-sized runways, substantial port facilities, radar platforms and space to accommodate military forces is that China’s objective is to dominate the waters of the South China Sea at will. Building the islands is therefore, in my view, a significant strategic event.\u201d <\/em>Then he added, \u201cThey leave the potential for the South China Sea to become a Chinese strait, rather than an open component of the global maritime commons.\u201d <\/em>However, he said that China could restrict commercial movement in the area.\u00a0But the \u201creal problem\u201d is that China could also restrict passage through this \u201cstrategic strait\u201d in times of crisis.<\/p>\n If China restricts American passage in the SCS, it could cause innumerable damage to U.S.\u2019s trade and economy.\u00a0In 2011, $5.3 trillion in trade passed through the SCS, $1.2 trillion of which was tied to the U.S.\u00a0About 90% of East Asian energy imports pass through the SCS.\u00a0In 2014, the U.S. exported $79 billion in goods to countries around the SCS, and imported $127 billion from them that same year.\u00a0It is therefore in the U.S.\u2019s best interest that the SCS should remain open to maritime navigation.<\/p>\n Chinese objective<\/strong><\/p>\n It is obvious that China wants to end America\u2019s dominance in the SCS; thus, taking full control of the Indo-Asia-Pacific region, economically, militarily, and politically.\u00a0It will be the end of Pax Americana<\/em> and the advent of Pax Sinica<\/em>.\u00a0And this begs the question:\u00a0What would the U.S. do in the event that China went ahead with the reclamation of Scarborough Shoal?<\/p>\n With the election of a new U.S. president who will assume office on January 20, 2017, it is impossible to predict how the new American leader would deal with Chinese expansionism in the SCS and beyond. And the lame duck president Barack Obama would more than likely do nothing short of a second-strike nuclear attack in response to a Chinese first-strike against the U.S. or any of her treaty allies in the Indo-Asia-Pacific region.<\/p>\n Treaty obligations<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/strong><\/p>\n But what if China sent her dredging and hauling equipment to start reclamation of the Scarborough Shoal? What would Obama or his successor do, knowing that what is at stake is America\u2019s pre-eminence as a Pacific power?\u00a0\u00a0While Obama would resort to diplomacy, which would fail as it has in the past seven years, it would be interesting to know what the next president \u2014 Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders \u2014 would do?<\/p>\n Will any of them come to the aid of the Philippines under the U.S.\u2014Philippine Mutual Defence Treaty (MDT) if the Philippines invoked it?\u00a0 Under the MDT, the U.S. is obligated to protect not only Philippine \u201cmetropolitan territory\u201d but also the \u201cisland territories\u201d within her jurisdiction.\u00a0Furthermore, the MDT also obligates the U.S. to defend Philippine \u201cpublic ships and aircraft\u201d \u2014 including military vessels \u2014 from armed attack in the Pacific (including the SCS).<\/p>\n In this regard the Scarborough Shoal (then known by its Spanish name, Baja de Masinloc<\/em>) was part of the Philippine archipelago that was ceded by Spain to the U.S. under the 1898 Treaty of Paris.\u00a0The 1900 Treaty of Washington clarified that any and all territories administered by Spain are part of the Philippine Islands, even if they were located outside the original Treaty of Paris lines circumscribing the Philippine archipelago.\u00a0In 1938, the U.S. Department of State recognized that the U.S. had acquired title to the Scarborough Shoal from Spain based on the Treaty of Washington.\u00a0In 1946, the Scarborough Shoal was one of the territories that the U.S. transferred to the Philippines upon her independence.\u00a0In 2012, China seized the Scarborough Shoal and declared \u201cindisputable sovereignty\u201d over it.<\/p>\n With the geostrategic value of Scarborough Shoal, the U.S. should \u2014 nay, must! \u2014 not allow China to militarize it.\u00a0That would certainly push back American forces to where they were prior to 1898.\u00a0As tensions heat up in the SCS, one wonders if the U.S. would prevent China \u2014 by military means \u2014 from building a military base on Scarborough Shoal?\u00a0If the U.S. uses military force, it is expected that China would respond in kind, which could then trigger World War III. (<\/strong>PerryDiaz@gmail.com<\/a><\/strong>)<\/strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n <\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" The biggest and hottest topic in geopolitical circles today is World War III, or to be more precise\u2026 where will World War III start?\u00a0But if you ask Pope Francis, he\u2019d probably say what he said several months ago: World War III has already begun, at least in a \u201cpiecemeal fashion.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[49,52,70],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philippinesentinel.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4441"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philippinesentinel.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philippinesentinel.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philippinesentinel.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philippinesentinel.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4441"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.philippinesentinel.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4441\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philippinesentinel.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4441"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philippinesentinel.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4441"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philippinesentinel.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4441"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}