{"id":4543,"date":"2016-08-06T18:41:55","date_gmt":"2016-08-06T18:41:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.philippinesentinel.org\/?p=4543"},"modified":"2016-08-06T18:41:55","modified_gmt":"2016-08-06T18:41:55","slug":"%e2%97%8f%e2%97%8f%e2%97%8fperryscope%e2%97%8f%e2%97%8f%e2%97%8fby-perry-diaz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.philippinesentinel.org\/?p=4543","title":{"rendered":"PERRYSCOPE by Perry Diaz"},"content":{"rendered":"

High stakes in the South China Sea<\/strong>: On July 12, 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA), in a unanimous decision, delivered a \u201ctriple whammy\u201d to China.\u00a0 In a press release, it said that the Arbitral Tribunal ruled that \u201cthere was no legal basis for China to claim historic rights to resources within the sea falling with the \u2018nine-dash line\u2019.\u201d <\/p>\n

Secondly, the Tribunal\u00a0 reaffirmed that the rocks and reefs are not \u201cislands\u201d by virtue of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea\u2019s (UNCLOS) definition, which says that an island must be capable of supporting human habitation.\u00a0 It says that only islands are entitled to a 200-mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ).<\/p>\n

Thirdly, the Tribunal found that the Scarborough Shoal is within the Philippines\u2019 EEZ and that China had violated the Philippines\u2019 sovereign rights in her EEZ.<\/p>\n

In regard to China\u2019s reclamation and construction of artificial islands within the Philippines\u2019 EEZs, the Tribunal concluded that \u201cChina had inflicted irreparable harm to the marine environment, and destroyed evidence of the natural condition of features in the South China Sea (SCS) that formed part of the Parties\u2019 dispute.\u201d<\/p>\n

But while the Tribunal\u2019s ruling is crystal clear and, without a shadow of a doubt, conforms with international norms as well as \u201cfreedom of navigation\u201d exercised by all countries, China has from the get-go refused to participate in the arbitration proceedings and had rejected the Tribunal\u2019s ruling.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s dilemma<\/strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n

Obviously, China\u2019s miscalculation in asserting her \u201cindisputable sovereignty\u201d over 90% of the SCS, delineated by a \u201cnine-dash line\u201d of dubious provenance, has created self-inflicted problems for Chinese President Xi Jinping.\u00a0 In pursuing his \u201cChina Dream,\u201d Xi hoped to extend China\u2019s political and military hegemony far beyond China\u2019s shores.\u00a0 But he made a faulty presumption that the United States would not interfere with China\u2019s imperialistic machination.\u00a0 He should have gotten the cue from then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton when she announced the U.S.\u2019s \u201cPivot to Asia\u201d strategy during her visit to Australia in 2011.\u00a0 She said that 60% of American naval and air forces would be deployed to the Indo-Asia-Pacific region by 2020.<\/p>\n

Today, the \u201crebalancing,\u201d as the pivot is referred to, is pretty much achieved after the U.S. Third and Seventh Fleets — combined strength of more than 200 warships and 400 warplanes \u2013 were placed under a unified command and control structure. With five of America\u2019s 10 aircraft carrier battle groups operating in the Indo-Asia-Pacific waters, Xi should think twice before he\u2019d send China\u2019s green-water navy to face the U.S.\u2019s awesome blue-water armada.\u00a0\u00a0 <\/strong><\/p>\n

In an attempt to scare the U.S. and protect her self-declared \u201cindisputable sovereignty\u201d over the SCS, China threatened to declare an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over the contested waters.\u00a0 But the question is: Does China have the capability to defend an ADIZ over a vast region?\u00a0 China\u2019s airbase on Hainan Island is the only one that could provide the logistics necessary to defend an ADIZ over the SCS.\u00a0 But it\u2019s not enough.<\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/p>\n

Diplomacy<\/strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n

With a military option outside the realm of probabilities \u2013 unless China is on a suicide mission \u2013 diplomacy is the only viable solution to settle the territorial disputes among the six claimants of the SCS.\u00a0 Using the Arbitral Tribunal\u2019s ruling as a baseline for negotiations, it would level the playing field for all the claimants to come to an agreement on how to deal with their territorial disputes; thus, giving Xi Jinping a face-saving way out of a messy bind.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, President Rodrigo Duterte wasted no time in tapping Senior Associate Justice Antonio Carpio (who played a crucial role in building the case against China), Associate Justice Francis Jardeleza, and former solicitor general Florin Hilbay — they\u2019re all part of the Philippine team that participated in the Arbitral Tribunal hearings — to study the landmark decision and formulate a game plan.\u00a0 Duterte also asked former president Fidel V. Ramos to initiate diplomatic talks with China.<\/p>\n

From a geopolitical perspective, the Tribunal\u2019s ruling has effectively extinguished any notion that China might have in reclaiming and building an artificial island around Scarborough Shoal.\u00a0 The shoal\u2019s location is strategic to China because by reclaiming it and militarizing it — just like it did with seven reefs and rocks in the Spratly archipelago \u2013 she would be in a position to control passage through the Luzon Strait, which is the closest waterway for China to reach the Philippine Sea and Western Pacific.\u00a0 If China breaks through the strait, which is the weakest link in the First Island Chain that runs from Japan through Taiwan, the Philippines, and Borneo, it would push back the U.S.\u2019s defense line to the Second Island Chain, which would be right at America\u2019s doorsteps \u2013 Guam.\u00a0\u00a0 Do you think America would allow this to happen without firing a shot? <\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/p>\n

Red line<\/strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n

In a meeting between Presidents Barack Obama and Xi Jinping last March, Obama admonished Xi, warning him of serious consequences if China reclaimed the Scarborough Shoal.\u00a0\u00a0 Following their meeting, China withdrew her ships from the area.\u00a0 Did Obama just draw a red line over Scarborough Shoal?\u00a0 It would seem like it. <\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/p>\n

An added geopolitical value of a Chinese-occupied — and militarized — Scarborough Shoal is that it would demarcate a triangular area bounded by the Paracel Islands, Spratly Islands, and Scarborough Shoal.\u00a0 This \u201ctriangle\u201d would then allow China to impose a \u201cstrategic strait\u201d that runs through it; thus, controlling the maritime traffic in the SCS, through which more than $5 trillion of trade moves annually.\u00a0 A great number of this trade goes to Japan and South Korea, treaty allies of the U.S.<\/p>\n

Benham Rise<\/strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n

It is interesting to note that the U.S. had been vying for the deployment of American forces to Batanes Island and Laoag Airport in Ilocos Norte.\u00a0 If the Duterte administration allows the deployment to these locations, it would counter any attempt by China to reclaim Scarborough Shoal and establish a \u201cstrategic strait\u201d in the SCS.\u00a0 These two locations would also provide the U.S. with vantage points to control the choke point at the Luzon Strait; therefore, it would prevent China from extending her naval power into the Second Island Chain, which would put the Philippines\u2019 Benham Rise at risk to Chinese grab.<\/p>\n

Benham Rise is a 13-million-hectare undersea landmass in the Philippine Sea, which is about the size of Luzon.\u00a0 The Philippines claims it as part of her continental shelf, which the UNCLOS had approved in 2012.\u00a0 It is rich in minerals and has vast deposits of natural gas hydrates (also called \u201cflammable ice\u201d or \u201cMethane ice\u201d), which could turn the country into a natural gas exporter.\u00a0 Actually, some Japanese and South Korean companies had indicated interest in jointly exploring Benham Rise with the Philippines.\u00a0 It is therefore imperative that the Philippines prevents China from making an entry into the Philippine Sea.\u00a0 We shouldn\u2019t forget what she did to Philippine territories in the SCS.\u00a0 Should the Philippines suffer the same fate as she did in the SCS?<\/p>\n

But preventing China from breaking out into the Philippine Sea is one thing; keeping the SCS open to international navigation is another thing.\u00a0 All nations \u2013 particularly those in the Indo-Asian Pacific region \u2013 have stakes in the SCS.\u00a0 Since the Philippines has the biggest stake, it would be natural for her to launch a diplomatic initiative with China.\u00a0 But she is not alone… and shouldn\u2019t be.\u00a0 All other claimants to the SCS should \u2013 nay, must! \u2013 be involved in the negotiations.\u00a0 It\u2019s only then that the territorial disputes in the SCS could be settled peacefully \u2013 and equitably — and to everybody\u2019s satisfaction\u2026 including China.<\/p>\n

Yes, the stakes are high, indeed.\u00a0 It\u2019s time to talk; but let\u2019s talk from a position of strength. (PerryDiaz@gmail.com<\/em><\/a>)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

High stakes in the South China Sea: On July 12, 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA), in a unanimous decision, delivered a \u201ctriple whammy\u201d to China.\u00a0 In a press release, it said that the Arbitral Tribunal ruled that \u201cthere was no legal basis for China to claim historic rights to resources within the sea […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[52,70],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philippinesentinel.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4543"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philippinesentinel.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philippinesentinel.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philippinesentinel.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philippinesentinel.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4543"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.philippinesentinel.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4543\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philippinesentinel.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4543"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philippinesentinel.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4543"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philippinesentinel.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4543"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}