A recent issue of the Philippines Today, headlines: \u201cDuterte warns China of war over oil, uranium.\u201d I couldn\u2019t believe what I was reading. Was President Rodrigo Duterte bluffing? Or did he finally find the courage to remind Chinese President Xi Jinping of the Philippines\u2019 claim in the West Philippine Sea (WPS)?<\/p>\n
Although Duterte had insinuated a few times before about war with China over oil exploration, he wasn\u2019t taken seriously. People would say, \u201cHe was just joking.\u201d But this time around, he seemed to be serious. He gave the warning in a speech before the League of Municipalities on the Philippines (LMP), about two months prior to Xi\u2019s scheduled visit to the Philippines in November. What gives?<\/p>\n
Duterte considers Xi as a \u201cgood friend,\u201d having been able to get huge loans for his infrastructure projects. He told his audience: \u201cMr. Xi Jinping, we also have a claim. You know we have the award [U.N.\u2019s arbitral tribunal ruling that awarded the Philippines in June 2016]. But I will not insist on recovering the award because it would result in a war, and it will be a massacre, I know. But please be it noted that one day during my term, I will assert (our rights).\u201d Does that mean that by asserting our rights, he\u2019ll go to war \u2501 a real war, not word war \u2501 against China?<\/p>\n
Which bring another question to the fore: Did Duterte play \u201coffensive\u201d move at a time when Xi is scheduled to visit the Philippines in November? Could it be that he\u2019s posturing to gain positional advantage when he faces Xi to talk or negotiate the issues that have been festering ever since Duterte abandoned pursuing the arbitral award? <\/p>\n
Checkmating Duterte<\/p>\n
Surmise it is to say, if Duterte were a good chess player, he would move his pieces in positions to prevent Xi from moving his pieces forward within checkmating distance. Xi now has to rethink of revising his playbook when he arrives in the Philippines. He may have to deal with a leader who has changed his tune and might not be too willing to agree or accede to his proposal \u2501 or demands? \u2501 in relation to the Philippines\u2019 claims in the WPS.<\/p>\n
But Duterte told his audience that if there is war, it \u201cwould result in a massacre,\u201d a line he had repeatedly mentioned in the past. This would weaken Duterte\u2019s hand. Besides, Xi is certain that Duterte will never go to war against China, simply because the Philippines doesn\u2019t have the means to go war. War with China would entail the use of naval and air forces in the contested waters. With no heavy warships and just a dozen jet fighters, Duterte was right when he said that it would end in a massacre of Philippine forces.<\/p>\n
Duterte\u2019s ace card<\/p>\n
Okay, so Duterte was bluffing\u2026 just joking again. However, Xi knows he can\u2019t go to war with the Philippines because Duterte has an ace card: the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT), which calls for each party to come to the aid of the other in the event of an invasion from China or any other country for that matter. <\/p>\n
It’s interesting to note that the anti-American leftists in the Philippines have tirelessly been demanding for the revocation of the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) and the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) with the U.S. But what baffles a lot of people is that the leftists don\u2019t demand the abrogation of the MDT. Why? Will it suffice to say that the Filipino people \u2501 including the leftists \u2501 treat the MDT as an \u201cinsurance\u201d from the threat of war by another country, particularly China? <\/p>\n
When the Philippine Senate rejected the renewal of U.S. bases in the country in 1991 and the closing of the bases the following year, China \u2501 within two years \u2501 occupied the Mischief Reef. The Philippine government couldn\u2019t do anything to stop the occupation. China could then have invaded the country. But the MDT deterred her. Without it, the Philippines would have fallen easily to Chinese invasion. The \u201cinsurance\u201d worked.
\nThe MDT also covers any Philippine naval vessel that is attacked in the high seas. That is why the BPS Sierra Madre, a rusty vessel of World War II vintage, was purposely grounded at the Ayungin Shoal in 1999 with a contingent of Philippine marines stationed on board to keep the Chinese at bay. China had incessantly demanded that the Philippines remove the grounded Sierra Madre. They even offered to haul it away for free! Obviously, once the Sierra Madre is removed, they can then occupy Ayungin Shoal without interference. <\/p>\n
Malacca Dilemma<\/p>\n
But China isn\u2019t ready to go to war against America. Not yet. It would take many years for China to catch up militarily with the U.S. But because of China\u2019s dependence on foreign oil that accounts for 80% of her oil consumption imported from the Middle East and Africa, China is inflicted psychologically with what is called \u201cMalacca Dilemma.\u201d <\/p>\n
The \u201cMalacca Dilemma\u201d is a term coined by former Chinese President Hu Jintao in 2003 on China\u2019s over-reliance on the Malacca Straits where her oil imports from the Middle East and Africa pass through. A conflict in the region or war with the U.S. would affect China\u2019s geopolitical and energy strategies. If war erupts between U.S. and China, the U.S. can block the chokepoint at the mouth of the Strait of Malacca and the Indian Ocean; thus, stopping all oil shipments to China. It is estimated that China has strategic oil reserves that would last for only 10 days. Without oil China would be paralyzed and rendered useless militarily. <\/p>\n
In my column, \u201cDuterte\u2019s red lines: Is it a joke?\u201d (June13, 2018), I wrote: \u201cWhen Duterte told Chinese President Xi Jinping during a recent trip to Beijing that the Philippines intended to drill in the Recto Bank, Xi told him: \u2018We\u2019re friends, we don\u2019t want to quarrel with you, we want to maintain the presence of warm relationship, but if you force the issue, we\u2019ll go to war.\u2019 Whoa! It must have hit Duterte like a double whammy! <\/p>\n
\u201cIn an effort to placate Xi and maintain a friendly relationship, Duterte offered to jointly explore and drill for oil in the Recto Bank on a 60-40 sharing deal. \u201cChina has offered joint exploration and joint operation. And I said, maybe, we give you [China] a better deal, 60-40,\u201d Duterte told an audience on April 26.\u201d<\/p>\n
Clearly, China wouldn\u2019t go to war against the U.S. and, by extension, the Philippines. China couldn\u2019t afford the economic loss she would incur if war erupts, which makes one wonder: How are the Philippines and China going to play their geopolitical chess game when Xi visits the Philippines? And who is bluffing: Duterte or Xi? Or both? \u2126 (PerryDiaz@gmail.com)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
A recent issue of the Philippines Today, headlines: \u201cDuterte warns China of war over oil, uranium.\u201d I couldn\u2019t believe what I was reading. Was President Rodrigo Duterte bluffing? Or did he finally find the courage to remind Chinese President Xi Jinping of the Philippines\u2019 claim in the West Philippine Sea (WPS)?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[52],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philippinesentinel.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5264"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philippinesentinel.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philippinesentinel.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philippinesentinel.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philippinesentinel.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5264"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.philippinesentinel.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5264\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5265,"href":"https:\/\/www.philippinesentinel.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5264\/revisions\/5265"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philippinesentinel.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5264"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philippinesentinel.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5264"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philippinesentinel.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5264"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}