The decision to launch airstrikes is to protect US military and diplomatic personnel in Irbil, which is threatened by ISIS attack. It is an urgent short-term goal.
Airstrikes may delay and weaken but not stop ISIS offensives. Irbil may fall soon in spite of airstrikes. US personnel may have to evacuate, an embarrassment to Obama.
ISIS vengeance against airstrikes will be more vicious against the populace, resulting in increased beheadings.
Long term, without troops, airstrikes cannot make a significant dent. It will be another protracted stalemate as in Iraqi and Afghan occupation, this time worse since there are no troops.
Airstrikes are costly because they involve carriers and their escorts. ISIS knows the US will never bring in troops, giving them the initiative. If airstrikes hit innocent civilians, there will be a dilemma.
ISIS has sophisticated US weapons captured from Iraqi government troops.
ISIS has billions of dollars in funds taken from the Syrian revolution, especially control of oil wells.
ISIS has a feverish drive for recruitment of Sunnis, especially the disgruntled youth, since they have the money and armaments. ISIS may achieve a well-armed army easily within a few months, doubling its ranks from 10,000 presently to 20,000. Time is of the essence in containing the ISIS drive. They are growing fast. It is like a powerful magnet attracting volunteers from Sunnis all over the Middle East. Indeed, ISIS is the new icon of Sunni revival.
Controlling the largest dam at Mosul, the second largest city, ISIS has the option to deny power and energy to large areas of populations and industries in case conflict heightens.
A large well-armed army and plenty of cash are the infrastructure for a major ISIS assault on Baghdad. After massive recruitment, the airstrikes may finally push ISIS to go for the jugular, to make the final assault. Whether it is quick or protracted war, a lot will die.
About 100,000 unarmed Indian Shiite volunteers plan to be human shields to surround the Shiite shrines in Iraq ISIS want to destroy. India is majority Sunni. The war disease is spreading.
If the Shiite-dominated Iraqi government falls, there will be more ethnic cleansing of majority Shiites by minority Sunnis like in the days of Saddam. This may usher in another Iraq Iran war. Who will the US side with among its two enemies? (eastwindreplyctr@gmail.com)